Sustained zero LTIFR and the economic effectiveness of industrial safety measures in metallurgical production at Ulba metallurgical plant JSC

This paper presents a quantitative analysis of occupational injury dynamics and the economic effectiveness of industrial safety measures in the Ulba Metallurgical Plant JSC (UMP JSC) for the period 2020-2024. The study is based on internal corporate reporting data, including the Lost Time Injury Frequency Rate (LTIFR), the number of lost-time injuries, annual expenditures on occupational and industrial safety, and leading indicators reflecting the condition of the safety barrier system. The results show that LTIFR amounted to 0.18 in 2020 and increased to 0.28 in 2021 (the maximum value within the analyzed period), after which it declined to 0.00 and remained at this level throughout 2022-2024. In parallel, total safety expenditures increased from 1,382,325 thousand KZT in 2020 and 1,608,726 thousand KZT in 2021 to 2,102,982 thousand KZT in 2022 and 2,814,728 thousand KZT in 2023, followed by optimization to 1,997,480 thousand KZT in 2024. The data demonstrate a reduction in LTIFR from 0.28 to 0.00 over a four-year interval and its sustained maintenance for three consecutive years. The economic evaluation of risk reduction measures was performed using the Expected Annual Loss (EAL) approach. The present value of costs (PV(C)) is approximately 25 million KZT, while the present value of prevented losses (PV(ΔEAL)) reaches 59 million KZT over a 10-year horizon at a 12% discount rate. The benefit-cost ratio (BCR) exceeded 2.0, indicating a positive net present value of the implemented safety measures. Leading indicators showed significant improvements: coverage of critical control inspections increased from 60% to 90%, training coverage rose from 85% to 97%, the proportion of non-conformities decreased from 18% to 9%, the average time required for corrective actions was reduced by more than half, and near-miss reporting increased from 40 to 80 cases per year. The findings confirm the systemic nature of the achieved effect and demonstrate that the trajectory «increased safety investment – zero LTIFR – expenditure optimization» is consistent with the ALARP principle. Sustained zero LTIFR in 2022-2024 is associated with a combination of engineering, organizational, and behavioral measures and is accompanied by a positive economic return on safety investments.

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